Sunday, July 28, 2013

So, I got all my reading and listening done...  Now I need to go back and review to write my blog!  Maybe I should take notes on what I read.  I never used to have to, but with the likely hundreds if not a thousand or my pages on read weekly from research reports and school, I think I may have to start taking notes.

One thing I keep coming back to is the social aspect.  The ability for anyone to come out and say or do just about anything they want on the Internet.  I was thinking about it in relation to investing yesterday.  As an active investor, I believe that through my research, I can actually beat the market over time.  We won't do it every year but we can do it over time.  Our clients believe that too and they stick with us when we have 6 months or a year below trend.  Historically we have come roaring back in the next year or two and move back to top performing fund.

The question though that I am asking here is, could a crowd approach to investing be better?  Seeking alpha is a way for investors on my levels to post research.  I love the idea!  Could I use it anonymously to develop some street cred as an activist (I do this quietly already with companies)?  More thoughts to come on that.  The problem I have is some of the research is just atrocious.  Here is a perfect example!

 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75121-add-some-power-to-your-portfolio-with-volterra-semiconductor

This "analyst" likes VLTR.  He has 48 different articles, almost 60 followers.  He is recommending buying VLTR.  That isn't the problem, I know the CEO, CFO, CTO, CMO, and many others at VLTR, but by just doing a little research, like reading and listening to their calls, I can tell you that some of his comments particularly the ones on notebook recovering or stabilizing (it's likely going to zero based on changes INTC has made to their chips) are wrong.  This is not to tell you to go long or short on VLTR but to point out that individuals doing research who don't know what they are doing (comments are basically positive on VLTR) shouldn't be doing it.  Would you invest using these analyst or retail sentiment indicators like trending stocks on message boards etc...?  Honestly, I would probably invest opposite those metrics.  I don't have an answer yet, but I don't see these models adding much value to the individual investor.  If the model over the long run only gives value to the owner, I believe it will fail.  I don't see this working in the investing world.  Maybe I could use it to launch an activist hedge fund though...  Hhhhmmmm, something to think about.

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